Abstract: Objective  To explore the risk factors of anal fistula after incision and drainage surgery for perianal abscess,and establish an individualized predictive nomogram model.Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted on the clinical data of 224 patients with perianal abscess who underwent incision and drainage surgery in Affiliated Hospital of Shanxi University of Chinese Medicine from May 2020 to January 2023,according to whether anal fistula occurred within 3 months after surgery,there were 169 cases in the non anal fistula group and 55 cases in the anal fistula group.Single factor method and multivariate Logistic regression analysis were applied to analyze the influencing factors of anal fistula after incision and drainage of perianal abscess,a nomogram risk model was constructed using independent risk factors to predict the occurrence of anal fistula after incision and drainage of perianal abscess,and the consistency and differentiation of the model were verified.Results The proportions of male,diabetes,deep abscesses,intestinal origin of pathogenic bacteria,and abscesses in anal fistula group were higher than those in non anal fistula group (P＜0.05).Male,diabetes,deep abscess,intestinal origin of pathogenic bacteria,and history of abscess were independent risk factors for anal fistula after incision and drainage of perianal abscess (P＜0.05).The ideal curve of the nomogram model fitted well with the correction curve,indicated that the measured values were basically consistent with the predicted values.The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was 0.946 (95%CI=0.914-0.979),indicated that the column plot model has good predictive discrimination.Conclusion The independent risk factors for anal fistula after incision and drainage surgery of perianal abscess include male,diabetes,deep abscess,intestinal origin of pathogenic bacteria,and history of abscess.The construction of related nomogram model can guide clinical screening of high-risk groups to a certain extent.

Key words: perianal abscess, incision and drainage surgery, anal fistula, independent risk factors, nomogram