临床外科杂志 ›› 2024, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (10): 1040-1043.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-6483.2024.10.010

• 论著 • 上一篇    下一篇

非小细胞肺癌病人腔镜术后心脏并发症发生的影响因素分析及预测模型构建

季凤俊 刘伟 景仕银 吴斌 杨长刚   

  1. 226600 江苏省海安市人民医院胸外科
  • 收稿日期:2023-11-01 出版日期:2024-11-07 发布日期:2024-11-07
  • 通讯作者: 杨长刚,Email:jfjha@163.com

Analysis of influencing factors and construction of prediction model for cardiac complications in patients with non-small cell lung cancer after endoscopic surgery

JI Fengjun,LIU Wei,JING Shiyin,WU Bin,YANG Changgang   

  1. Department of Thoracic Surgery,Hai'an People's Hospital,Hai'an,Jiangsu,226600,China
  • Received:2023-11-01 Online:2024-11-07 Published:2024-11-07

摘要: 目的分析非小细胞肺癌病人腔镜术后心脏并发症发生的影响因素及构建预测模型。方法 2020年1月~2023年1月我院行胸腔镜术治疗的非小细胞肺癌病人312例,根据术后是否发生心脏并发症分为心脏并发症组与非心脏并发症组。分析各组病人临床资料,采用多因素Logistic回归分析影响非小细胞肺癌病人腔镜术后心脏并发症发生的因素,并构建心脏并发症发生的全变量风险预测模型,采用受试者工作特征曲线(ROC)分析预测模型验证预测有效性。结果 312例非小细胞肺癌病人术后心脏并发症发生率为24.04%,单因素分析发现,非小细胞肺癌病人腔镜术后心脏并发症发生与年龄、吸烟史、合并症、术中出血量、手术时间及收缩压、第1秒用力肺呼气容积(FEV1)、FEV1占预计值的百分比(FEV1%)、空腹血糖(FPG)、糖化血红蛋白(HbA1c)、尿微量白蛋白有关(P<0.05);多因素Logistic逐步回归分析显示,年龄、合并症、手术时间、HbA1c均为影响非小细胞肺癌病人腔镜术后心脏并发症发生的独立危险因素(P<0.05)。根据多因素构建心脏并发症发生的风险预测模型,即P = 1/(1+ e-y),y =-3.114+ 0.881×年龄+0.754×合并症+1.285×手术时间+ 1.185×HbA1c,并经ROC曲线诊断发现,风险预测模型预测心脏并发症发生的AUC为0.847,95%CI为0.769~0.925,灵敏度为82.5%,特异度为83.2%。结论高龄、合并症、手术时间、HbA1c均是影响非小细胞肺癌病人腔镜术后心脏并发症发生的独立危险因素,且以上因素构建的风险预测模型对心脏并发症的发生具有良好的预测价值。

关键词: 非小细胞肺癌; 胸腔镜术; 心脏并发症; 危险因素; 模型构建

Abstract: Objective To explore the factors influencing the occurrence of cardiac complications after endoscopic surgery in patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and construct the prediction model.Methods A total of 312 patients with non-small cell lung cancer who were diagnosed and underwent thoracoscopic treatment in our hospital from January 2020 to January 2023 were selected as the objects of this study,and were divided into cardiac complication group and non-cardiac complication group according to whether cardiac complications occurred after surgery.The clinical data of patients in each group were analyzed,and the factors affecting the occurrence of cardiac complications in patients with non-small cell lung cancer after endoscopic surgery were discussed by multivariate Logistic regression analysis.A full-variable risk prediction model for the occurrence of cardiac complications was constructed,and the predictive model was verified by receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis.Results The incidence of postoperative cardiac complications in 312 patients with non-small cell lung cancer was 24.04%.Univariate analysis showed that Age,smoking history,smoking history,comorbidities,intraoperative blood loss,operative time,systolic blood pressure,FEV1,FEV1%,FPG,HbA1c and urinary microalbumin were correlated with the incidence of cardiac complications in patients with non-small cell lung cancer after endoscopic surgery (P<0.05).Multivariate Logistic stepwise regression analysis showed:age,comorbidities,operation time and HbA1c were independent risk factors for postoperative cardiac complications in patients with non-small cell lung cancer (P<0.05).A risk prediction model for cardiac complications was established based on multiple factors,that is,P = 1/ (1+ e-y),y=-3.114+ 0.881× age +0.754× complications +1.285× operation time + 1.185×HbA1c,and the ROC curve diagnosis showed that the risk prediction model predicted the occurrence of cardiac complications with an AUC of 0.847,95%CI of 0.769-0.925,sensitivity of 82.5%,specificity of 83.2%.Conclusion Age,complications,operation time,and HbA1c are all independent risk factors affecting the occurrence of cardiac complications in patients with non-small cell lung cancer after endoscopic surgery,and the risk prediction model constructed by the above factors has a good predictive value for the occurrence of cardiac complications.

Key words: non-small cell lung cancer; thoracoscopic surgery; cardiac complications; risk factors; model construction

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